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Thread ID: 77489	2007-03-11 20:21:00	Vista is taking off	Hitech (9024)	PC World Chat

Post ID	Timestamp	Content	User
532020	2007-03-12 21:45:00	Funny, the Microsoft fans will wildly believe that Vista is a huge success... but fail to listen when told that Firefox is starting to gain a huge market-share, or that Linux in the server market is at an all-time high... things like that?! I'll happily believe that for the first few months, sales _are_ going to be high. Of course, its a new product, idiots believe that the MUST have it coz "its what everybody has", even if they're worse-off getting it. Like a mate of mine said "I wanna learn to ride a motorbike on a Harley". I tried and tried to convince him not to, but to start with a nice small easy-to-ride 250cc bike (Surprisingly enough, he didnt care that you couldnt ride a bike bigger than 250cc).. but he said "No, Its gotta be a Harley Davidson, everybody whos a true biker has one". Idiot. Id be keen to see some real numbers in comparison with other OS sales. Of all the people I know that've just bought new PCs, there was 7 laptops and 3 desktops. One desktop had Vista as did two of the laptops... the rest were all XP. Perhaps thats just me... coz I recommended they _dont_ go to Harvey Normans for their machines ;) This all kind of misses the point though. It does not matter - not one jolt - whether the kind of user who goes to a "proper" PC store, or builds their own PC buys Vista. Vista will quickly become the default OS installed on new PCs. That's a fact. That will fairly quickly, in the next 12 months, drive up its market penetration. If you think Vista will somehow magically fail because a niche part of the audience - and yes, you guys are niche - opts to stay with XP or run Linux, then you are kidding yourselves. This has nothing to do with any user making a conscious choice. It will be what comes with a new PC. Those new PCs will need to be supported. The new Vista users will need to be supported. The knowledgeable users will eventually need to be running Vista to support those users. I'm not saying that's the way things should be, but that's the way they will be.	Biggles (121)
532021	2007-03-12 22:31:00	So what are you xp users going to use when microsoft pull xp off the shelves by the end of the year their will only be vista available all 6 versions. and not everyone will go to linux etc etc bye bye xp. A lot of people are still using Windows 2000, and support for that is dead already. They find it better than XP. Most probably coz theyre not too worried about the fancy eye-candy. They're not complaining.	Speedy Gonzales (78)
532022	2007-03-12 23:13:00	Well Vista might have taken off. Won't take long to crashland. But they will just patch it up and put it back in the aero :p	dolby digital (5073)
532023	2007-03-12 23:17:00	Funny, the Microsoft fans will wildly believe that Vista is a huge success . . . It will be Chill . PC's will continue to sell and they will have Vista . Now the business market is going to be a bit harder for Microsoft, especially IRD :)	dolby digital (5073)
532024	2007-03-12 23:30:00	This all kind of misses the point though. It does not matter - not one jolt - whether the kind of user who goes to a "proper" PC store, or builds their own PC buys Vista. Vista will quickly become the default OS installed on new PCs. That's a fact. That will fairly quickly, in the next 12 months, drive up its market penetration. If you think Vista will somehow magically fail because a niche part of the audience - and yes, you guys are niche - opts to stay with XP or run Linux, then you are kidding yourselves. This has nothing to do with any user making a conscious choice. It will be what comes with a new PC. Those new PCs will need to be supported. The new Vista users will need to be supported. The knowledgeable users will eventually need to be running Vista to support those users. I'm not saying that's the way things should be, but that's the way they will be. This is probably one of the saddest recent commentaries on the human race. Are we really such a bunch of headless chickens? Sadly, yes. It promises a bleak future for young people who are condemmed to eventually regard the present moment as "the good old days." However, the good news is that the rain has made my umbrella useful again after a long period of redundancy.	R2x1 (4628)
532025	2007-03-13 01:12:00	This is probably one of the saddest recent commentaries on the human race. Are we really such a bunch of headless chickens? Sadly, yes. It promises a bleak future for young people who are condemmed to eventually regard the present moment as "the good old days." However, the good news is that the rain has made my umbrella useful again after a long period of redundancy. It is merely commercial reality. For the vast - vast vast vast - number of PC purchasers in the world, Windows is the OS of "choice". By that I mean that 90% of new PC buyers will buy the defacto OS - Windows - without considering an alternative. They will make no choice, in other words. And they will therefore take whatever OS ships on the new PC and that OS will be Vista. This is the system of PC purchasing that has operated, globally, for many many years now. Apple has not seriously tried to compete with MS - instead it looks to its faithful (let's face it, those Apple ads with the Mac guy and PC guy preach to the converted, rather than trying to make new converts). Linux, for all its benefits, simply does not figure on the radar of the majority of non-technical PC users. All of which means that PC vendors big and small really only have one choice if they want to sell PCs - Windows pre-installed. Someone would have to unveil a bug in Vista that means your PC will turn into a pumpkin at midnight before Vista's gradual rsie to dominance would be halted. I say this without any reference to the faults and/or merits of Vista, XP, Mac OS or Linux. Beacuse these points are, frankly, irrelevant to the outcome. In fact, if I was a conspiracy theorist, I would say the high price of this new version of Windows was actually designed to push people towards a new system purchase rather than buy a Vista upgrade for their current PC, and thus kickstart the technology buying cycle that all the vendors want and have waited for through Vista's long development cycle. Lucky I'm not a conspiracy theorist.	Biggles (121)
532026	2007-03-13 02:16:00	Funny, the Microsoft fans will wildly believe that Vista is a huge success... but fail to listen when told that Firefox is starting to gain a huge market-share, or that Linux in the server market is at an all-time high... things like that?! I'll happily believe that for the first few months, sales _are_ going to be high. The point of my statement about the possibility of the next 3-4 months of YTD sales being high was that you can't take a 40% increase of YTD sales for Feb and say that Vista is taking off. One month is more like a seasonal adjustment for back to school stuff. IF the sales are still consistently strong for Vista for the next 3-4 months and there on after then yes, you could consider that Vista is being widely accepted by PC buyers, otherwise I would say that MS could be looking at a pretty flat year for sales until things settle down and 3rd party drivers are released as well as mainstream 3rd party apps. Large scale factors that will hurt or affect MS sales such as this report Microsoft Suffers Latest Blow As NIST Bans Windows Vista www.informationweek.com could serve to keep Vista sales flat for quite a while, especially among US corporates. There is a very good balanced review of Vista in this months NetGuide which covers all the pros and cons of Vista, written by Ian Watson, Phd, MSc, Associate Prof, Dept of Computer Sci, Auckland Uni. Cheers. PS.The "Apple faithful" that Bruce mentions currently number 22 million worldwide with about 1-1.5+ million being added to that number each quarter. At its lowest point in the mid to late 90's there were about 16 million Mac users world wide.	winmacguy (3367)
532027	2007-03-13 02:41:00	PS . The "Apple faithful" that Bruce mentions currently number 22 million worldwide with about 1-1 . 5+ million being added to that number each quarter . At its lowest point in the mid to late 90's there were about 16 million Mac users world wide . Hey, I'm not dissing the Apple users . I'm just saying that going from 16mill at a low point to 22mill now isn't a serious assault on Windows dominance and that Apple has not tried to make a serious assault on that dominance . That figure remains a small proportion of global PC users . My point is that there is no serious, commercially viable alternative in the marketplace . Windows is, to all intents and purposes, a monopoly on global PC desktops . Not servers, but user desktops . And monopolies roll on until they self destruct or someone actually gives them a run for their money . So does MS have a competitor . Seriously, if Joe user walks into a PC shop, big or small, what are the chnaces he'll be offered and alternative to a Windows-based PC? So is Windows about to self destruct then? Really? Vista is so busted/buggy/terrible that users/companies will spurn it in vast numbers? I don't think so Tim . Until that situation changes, Vista will by default become the dominant OS simply by being the one that gets ship on the most new PCs . And that has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with which OS is better . Again, I'm not saying this is a good state of affairs . But it is what will happen .	Biggles (121)
532028	2007-03-13 03:37:00	You have a very good point there.. perhaps Ive been wrong (Yes, it is possible...) ;)	Chilling_Silence (9)
532029	2007-03-13 03:53:00	I wasn't trying to challenge your comment, Bruce, I was just providing some figures even if they do appear somewhat insignificant. The thing is that about 6 million users of the 22 million have come at the expense of Microsoft. As other systems gain user acceptance both in the home and in the business they gradually chip away at Microsoft's market share. Microsoft may remain the overall leader in computers but I don't see them continuing with their monopoly as they have done in the past, similar to the battle between HP and Dell. I think 2007 will be an interesting year for all.	winmacguy (3367)
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