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Thread ID: 94262	2008-10-21 20:57:00	NZ Election - the good oil!	andrew93 (249)	PC World Chat

Post ID	Timestamp	Content	User
713753	2008-10-22 02:36:00	As Andrew says, this thread is about who you think will win, not who you WANT to win. I think Act will not get 2 or 3 MP's especially with Roger Douglas there. In fact I will be surprised if Epsom votes Rodney it. I mean it really is a wasted vote. I will also also be suprised if Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne get back in for the same reasons. Their parties are a waste of time as they are only about 1 or 2 per cent. I think Winston will lose in Tauranga (but it will be close) so I think NZ First won't be there. So that leaves National, Labour, The Greens and The Maori Party. So on that basis I think National will have just over 50% of the vote so they will be able to from a government and include the Maori Party if they want to.	Digby (677)
713754	2008-10-22 03:04:00	As Andrew says, this thread is about who you think will win, not who you WANT to win. I think Act will not get 2 or 3 MP's especially with Roger Douglas there. In fact I will be surprised if Epsom votes Rodney it. I mean it really is a wasted vote. I will also also be suprised if Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne get back in for the same reasons. Their parties are a waste of time as they are only about 1 or 2 per cent. I think Winston will lose in Tauranga (but it will be close) so I think NZ First won't be there. So that leaves National, Labour, The Greens and The Maori Party. So on that basis I think National will have just over 50% of the vote so they will be able to from a government and include the Maori Party if they want to. Anderton and Dunne have fairly stable polling in their electorates though...	somebody (208)
713755	2008-10-22 03:33:00	Hide & Dunne are more of a waste of space than a waste of a vote. :D	R2x1 (4628)
713756	2008-10-22 10:23:00	So that leaves National, Labour, The Greens and The Maori Party. So on that basis I think National will have just over 50% of the vote so they will be able to from a government and include the Maori Party if they want to. Hi Digby If the Maori party vote is less than the number of seats they win then we will have an overhang of seats. If there are say 124 seats instead of 120 then 51% of the vote will not be enough for anyone to form a Government (assuming they aren't in a coalition with the Maori Party). I can see some real problems arising from this. Peter Dunne, Jim Anderton and Rodney Hide have enough local support to win their seats. It is in the interests of Labour (and National) to not strongly oppose Jim (and Rodney) in the electorates so we will continue to have a mish mash of a coalition and bastardised policies. Andrew	andrew93 (249)
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