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| Thread ID: 111423 | 2010-07-26 16:45:00 | Economists Afraid Of 'Deflation' Now | SurferJoe46 (51) | PC World Chat |
| Post ID | Timestamp | Content | User | ||
| 1122620 | 2010-07-27 16:52:00 | And also don't forgot back in those days they had plenty of cheap oil, no over-population problem and plenty of as yet unexploited raw resources, no environmental problems to speak of plus a naive consumer base waiting for a golden future which was always just around the corner . It will be awhile before things get better, if ever . OK - but since when has naivety and a promise of a golden future 'right around the corner' been relinquished to Never-Never Land? All the other aspirations exist, although somewhat muted at the moment . If you think about it - you can remember a time when it all changed for the worst - right? Topically - I guess it was true that the Betty Crocker/Better Homes & Gardens 1950-60s cookbook era is gone - having passed right through Valley Of The Dolls and The Fountainhead - right up to 1984 and I, Robot with frightening and catastrophic speed . It still exists though - dreams and hopes - although persons are looking to the wrong hand for assistance - but that's fodder for another day . Actually you spoke truth - in a somewhat cryptic way - when you said that . Unfortunately, most people are in 'survival mode' right now and don't look to a bright future - not in the foreseeable, pluperfect-tense anyway . They just want to get through the current miasma and onto the next happy place . Ironically - when persons degrade to survival mode - things will turn into a Mad Max movie and all logic and conscience goes into the long drop . Social mores and niceties will be eschewed and the guy with the largest caliber will be king of the neighborhood - for a short nonce . It may seem as though I have a PhD in Maudlin - but I have always tried to get a 360º view on events and happenstances . |
SurferJoe46 (51) | ||
| 1122621 | 2010-07-27 18:12:00 | China's gonna be a problem though . They are experiencing economic growth, but not at the speed they want, nor the gov't will allow for some rather arcane reasons . The prices of having things built, manufactured and generally doing business in-toto, is getting more expensive there . That bodes badly for everyone involved - China and it's consumers . With the Yuan/USD being artificially covalent, it creates inflationary fees for the indigenous persons in that country and at the same time they insist on higher wages so they can buy the things they make for export . It's like working in a candy factory for poor, starvation wages - you can't even afford to buy any of the sweets you make - that's frustrating! I cannot see how the Chinese can be a valid storefront for ANY other countries yet - maybe later on when things become more level-playing-fielded, but not yet . Unfortunately, this also calls for a singular monetary system that rises and falls in value on an earth-wide scale, not just zonally or topically, and THAT is rife with all sorts of socio-political ramifications and selling out your monetary system to buoy up a weaker one at your expense . Not many people are so philanthropic when it comes to THEIR livelihoods and income security . In other words: "I'll give up my next meal right after you do" . "Unfortunately, this also calls for a singular monetary system that rises and falls in value on an earth-wide scale, not just zonally or topically, and THAT is rife with all sorts of socio-political ramifications and selling out your monetary system to buoy up a weaker one at your expense . " you cant have that without politicl union and 1 political controling body first . current euro zone problems prove that beyond any doubt . yes the chinese are currency manipulatin and it has to end soon |
angry (15305) | ||
| 1122622 | 2010-07-27 23:17:00 | Do you feel that 6% is realistic? Are your insurance companies and banks heavily in the real estate business? A lot of retirement folios are tied to the GNP, indirectly via the housing market since it affects that too, and right now a lot of the retirement insurance companies are getting caught short with long paper that isn't gonna pay out in the near or foreseeable future either . Many people out of work are taking the retirement early and just taking the loss up front with diminished payouts . But they see no prospects to ever being employed again, so they take their somewhat smaller golden parachute . The police/fire departments and civil servants are all tied to a private retirement account and investment company and they lost bundles on the housing crash - so there's no guarantee for the retired-retiring and someday-might-retire employees who have yet to even think about retirement . This is gonna get rough soon . I have Federal Social Security and am pretty safe so far . When it finally implodes and goes down, the rest of the government is gone anyway and everyone's in the same boat by then . 6% is realistic in comparison to how the US records unemployment so yes the real figure is higher but our labour market is in "better" shape overall definately not good shape . The NZ/Aus housing market will not crash "as hard" due to better employment, and the banks here were not issuing ridiculous mortgage plans to the poor like they did in the US, so the impact will not be as great . At the moment NZ Government debt is relatively low much lower than the US and most developed countries , however like Australia and the US private debt is high something like 92% of GDP but now declining . Mind due none of us have anything on Irelands 1100% GDP private debt lol This private debt can represent investment in a country however to me it is a indicator we have all been living well beyond our means . Borrowing money to "gamble" on the housing market, or the stock market . Kiwis are not big on gambling on the stock market, so the market crashes haven’t effected us as much as the US . I personally believe there is a fundamental problem with Capitalism . It realise on countries and businesses to constantly be expanding like a pyramid scheme . Countries want more GDP year over year, business share holders demand higher dividends year over year . The world cant support this type of greed its not sustainable long term . The very wealthiest here in the West are getting richer while the middle and lower class seem to be getting poorer (as the cost of living keeps increasing) . The next "Boom" cycle will just feed this gap further . Middle class America was far wealthier in the 50's and 60's and 70's, yet The US is on paper is a LOT more wealthy with year after year GDP increases . The world has a growing problem with wealth distribution and greed . |
Battleneter2 (9361) | ||
| 1122623 | 2010-07-28 01:52:00 | 6% is realistic in comparison to how the US records unemployment so yes the real figure is higher but our labour market is in "better" shape overall definately not good shape . The NZ/Aus housing market will not crash "as hard" due to better employment, and the banks here were not issuing ridiculous mortgage plans to the poor like they did in the US, so the impact will not be as great . At the moment NZ Government debt is relatively low much lower than the US and most developed countries , however like Australia and the US private debt is high something like 92% of GDP but now declining . Mind due none of us have anything on Irelands 1100% GDP private debt lol This private debt can represent investment in a country however to me it is a indicator we have all been living well beyond our means . Borrowing money to "gamble" on the housing market, or the stock market . Kiwis are not big on gambling on the stock market, so the market crashes haven’t effected us as much as the US . I personally believe there is a fundamental problem with Capitalism . It realise on countries and businesses to constantly be expanding like a pyramid scheme . Countries want more GDP year over year, business share holders demand higher dividends year over year . The world cant support this type of greed its not sustainable long term . The very wealthiest here in the West are getting richer while the middle and lower class seem to be getting poorer (as the cost of living keeps increasing) . The next "Boom" cycle will just feed this gap further . Middle class America was far wealthier in the 50's and 60's and 70's, yet The US is on paper is a LOT more wealthy with year after year GDP increases . The world has a growing problem with wealth distribution and greed . " I personally believe there is a fundamental problem with Capitalism . It realise on countries and businesses to constantly be expanding like a pyramid scheme . Countries want more GDP year over year, business share holders demand higher dividends year over year . The world cant support this type of greed its not sustainable long term . " This is the flaw with the current CONSUMERISM model of capitalism . You left out an important feature of the consumerism model . a continously expanding population . since 1945 the population of the planet has trippled . even the chineese know this is not sustainable, thats why they have the one child policy . the consumerism model will be replaced by a sustainable form of capatilism or humans Will become extinct . . |
angry (15305) | ||
| 1122624 | 2010-07-28 02:32:00 | I'm so pleased, Angry, that you have the complete answer to Life, the Universe and Everything. In my, perhaps misguided, opinion I thought the answer was 42 but I guess new maths has shot that theory down in flames. There will be a General Election held in New Zealand sometime late next year if not before. Why not form a Political Party and stand for election? All you have to do is gather a reasonable number of like minded people to join and then get voted in. My idea is to start a Party composed of ex prison inmates, ex whores, lesbians, homosexuals, anyone who ever got dole or sickness benefits or DPB, anyone who was ever convicted of any offence however minor. Then we all go shoot everyone that does not agree with us. That was all said somewhat tongue in cheek by the way but I simply can't agree that ALL people of any particular religion have the same mind set. But feel free to do whatever you want so long as your actions are lawful and do not impinge on me or mine. Lawful, I might add, does not imply moral. |
Snorkbox (15764) | ||
| 1122625 | 2010-07-28 04:13:00 | I dont think there is any dispute that the answer to life is 42 it took a long time for the computer to work it out so its probaly right. | prefect (6291) | ||
| 1122626 | 2010-07-28 04:58:00 | This is the flaw with the current CONSUMERISM model of capitalism . . And what the hell is a non-consumerism form of Capitalism? |
pctek (84) | ||
| 1122627 | 2010-07-28 05:34:00 | And what the hell is a non-consumerism form of Capitalism? Where no-one buys anything and everyone goes broke...???? :D |
johcar (6283) | ||
| 1122628 | 2010-07-28 05:45:00 | Are you suggesting government intervention in the housing market??? That sounds like communism to me, prefect! :D Capitalism - letting the market dictate the price based on demand.... Well the government intervened with telecom, by regulating a privately owner company, so anything is possible. Housing is a necessity, so I would like to see policies introduced to bring down the cost of housing. However NZ has so much debt that has fuelled this housing bubble, that if it did pop and prices dropped 50%, it would possibly ruin the NZ economy. |
robbyp (2751) | ||
| 1122629 | 2010-07-28 05:59:00 | And what the hell is a non-consumerism form of Capitalism? ok, an intelligent question. eg, Shoes were once made in such a way that they could be, not only repaired, but easily repaired. Most Heavy equippment eg: large excavator's, loader's, Kenworth truck's, is still made that way. Since the early 60's there has been a sharp move towards "the warehouse" style, throw away products. Cheap, nasty, dosent last, made NOT to be repaired. The IT industry in particular ,is and extremly wastefull industry with an awful lot of planned obsolesence and deliberate overpriceing of repair parts, to force consumers to buy another new one feeding the software and equippment supplier profits. EG, hp 5300 scanner, produced to run on Micro$oft win 98 and 2k. when xp cam out hp did not supply drivers to down load for that model and would not supply upgrades for the sw with it even though it was only 6 weeks old. Their position was "is now obsolete buy a new one". Strangely enough it's still in occasional use today (has probably done only 80 hours work now), multi booting has its uses. 20 years was a normal life for a maintained car, until the eighties. now they are deliberatly making cars that rust out from the inside of the frame first in less than 12 years so they can not be repaired. It is possible to return to an earlier much more sustainable model of capatilism, where thing's were made to a much higher standard, lasted longer and could be repaired. This model is sustainable, does not require an ever increasing increasing population, and will survive in a managed decreasing population. It is ecologically viable, and long term sustainable. A lot of large companies and nations like india of course have no intrest in seeing a return to a more sustainable form of capatilism. Todays McWorld isn't even fifty years old, I doubt it will see One Hundred and fifty. |
angry (15305) | ||
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