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Thread ID: 115297 2011-01-11 21:41:00 What happened to our wet summer? johcar (6283) PC World Chat
Post ID Timestamp Content User
1168974 2011-01-11 21:41:00 Weren't we told by the Metservice weather-guessers in November/December that we would have a wetter-than-usual summer?

Haven't had a lot of rain in Auckland recently (not that I'm complaining) - maybe Queensland is getting our weather.... 		johcar (6283)
1168975 2011-01-11 22:25:00 They can keep it thanks :)

They have been having a lot of rain in November/December, which according to This site (news.sky.com eature_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15891088_Australian_Floods%3A_La_Nina_ Wreaks_Havoc_On_Australia_Writes_Sky_News_Weather_ Presenter_Isobel_Lang) is caused by a La Nina - opposite to El Nino weather pattern. 		wainuitech (129)
1168976 2011-01-11 22:44:00 It's been raining down here a lot.

It's actually raining atm :D 		xyz823 (13649)
1168977 2011-01-11 22:45:00 Not raining here, but apparently it's raining in Temuka (as darkstar09 mentioned) pcuser42 (130)
1168978 2011-01-11 22:46:00 They did?
A strong La Niña in the tropical Pacific is expected to persist into early autumn 2011, says the NIWA National Climate Centre . La Niña conditions are likely to ease during the autumn .

Late summer (January to March) temperatures are very likely to be above average for the time of year, for most districts of the country, apart from eastern districts of both islands where average or above average temperatures are likely .

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in the western South Island, normal or above normal in the eastern North Island, and near normal elsewhere . Soil moisture levels and river flows during January–March are likely to be near normal in all regions, according to the National Climate Centre’s latest seasonal outlook .

The seasonal outlook states that mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over New Zealand and to the east of the country, for the three months as a whole .

Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near- or above-normal this season (through to May 2011) . The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is slightly above the long-term average . On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons .

Overall Picture

Temperature:

On average for late summer (January-March), temperatures are likely to be average or above average in eastern regions and are very likely to be above average elsewhere . Sea surface temperatures are presently near normal around New Zealand, and are expected to become warmer than normal over the coming three months .

Rainfall, soil moisture, and river flows:

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal in most districts, but normal or above normal in the eastern North Island and normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island . Late summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal in all regions .



Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Temperatures are very likely to be above average . Seasonal rainfalls, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the normal range .

Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average . The full probability breakdown is: 		pctek (84)
1168979 2011-01-11 22:53:00 Not raining here, but apparently it's raining in Timaru (as darkstar09 mentioned)

Fixed for ya :D

Although it probably is raining in tka too. 		xyz823 (13649)
1168980 2011-01-11 22:55:00 Fixed for ya :D

I did mean Temuka - I know someone who lives down there. 		pcuser42 (130)
1168981 2011-01-11 23:06:00 I did mean Temuka - I know someone who lives down there.

:blush: 		xyz823 (13649)
1168982 2011-01-11 23:19:00 They did?
A strong La Niña in the tropical Pacific is expected to persist into early autumn 2011, says the NIWA National Climate Centre . La Niña conditions are likely to ease during the autumn .

Late summer (January to March) temperatures are very likely to be above average for the time of year, for most districts of the country, apart from eastern districts of both islands where average or above average temperatures are likely .

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in the western South Island, normal or above normal in the eastern North Island, and near normal elsewhere . Soil moisture levels and river flows during January–March are likely to be near normal in all regions, according to the National Climate Centre’s latest seasonal outlook .

The seasonal outlook states that mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over New Zealand and to the east of the country, for the three months as a whole .

Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near- or above-normal this season (through to May 2011) . The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is slightly above the long-term average . On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons .

Overall Picture

Temperature:

On average for late summer (January-March), temperatures are likely to be average or above average in eastern regions and are very likely to be above average elsewhere . Sea surface temperatures are presently near normal around New Zealand, and are expected to become warmer than normal over the coming three months .

Rainfall, soil moisture, and river flows:

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal in most districts, but normal or above normal in the eastern North Island and normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island . Late summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal in all regions .



Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Temperatures are very likely to be above average . Seasonal rainfalls, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the normal range .

Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average . The full probability breakdown is:

Not sure where you got that pctek, but I suspect it's the usual "oops,-original-predictions-not-looking-like-they're-correct,-so-let's-change-our-position-and-hope-no-one-notices" position .

I distinctly remember a wet forecast, because I am very conscious of the weather for cycling . I was peeved (pointlessly) at the time, because we had had such a crap winter for riding, I was looking forward to some dry, warm weather riding (which we're now getting copious amounts of) . 		johcar (6283)
1168983 2011-01-11 23:46:00 Not raining here although we are having a few cloudy days, might not hold on to our sunshine crown this year depending on what's happening in Blenheim. Meant t rain tonight though but I doubt it will gary67 (56)
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