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Thread ID: 123163	2012-02-08 01:09:00	whats the best online weather forcast ??	1101 (13337)	PC World Chat

Post ID	Timestamp	Content	User
1257968	2012-02-08 09:41:00	Hi all I have been suggested this website here (www.yr.no). It is from Norway though you can add about any place in NZ. I have heard that quite a few helicopter people use it. My :2cents: Don't forget that this site, and most all weather forecasting services gather the same raw data from mainly NZ Govt Met stations. They then analyse the trends in their fashion, and present their findings again in their own fashion. The problem with local forecasting is we have such a diverse range of terrain and local influences, it's almost impossible to reach a wholly accurate forecast at the best of times. The very pretty Norwegian presentation does a good job of showing trends, but not so of reaching good conclusions.	WalOne (4202)
1257969	2012-02-08 21:59:00	Ken Ring (http://www.predictweather.co.nz/) Forget the earthquakes. This guy really does have weather forecasting nailed. Not on the last time I used his forcasts I printed out 2 months worth. Accuracy was no better than random guessing, but no others were doing long long range forcasts. Maybe hes getting better :banana He did actually predict one of the aftershocks, the skeptics (I'm One) quickly ignored this 100% accurate aftershock prediction.	1101 (13337)
1257970	2012-02-08 22:25:00	Ken Ring (http://www.predictweather.co.nz/) This guy really does have weather forecasting nailed. The hell he does - keep his forecasts. Then see how he did. It's rubbish.	pctek (84)
1257971	2012-02-08 22:29:00	The problem with local forecasting is we have such a diverse range of terrain and local influences, it's impossible to reach a wholly accurate forecast at any time. The very pretty Norwegian presentation does a good job of showing trends, but not so of reaching good conclusions. fixed :)	dugimodo (138)
1257972	2012-02-08 23:39:00	fixed :) It's not impossible to come up with an accurate forecast. I often tell the story regarding aviation forecasting, of a particular forecaster at Wellington Airport in the 60s. He was able to forecast the passage of a front to within 30 minutes, the wind direction (at all operating altitudes) to within +- 5 degrees, and the wind speed to within +- 5 knots. All without the help of modern day aids. He wasn't allowed to add his moniker to the forecast, but his distinctive style of language was a giveaway, and one came to judge and trust the accuracy of this forecaster. But many accurate forecasts are denied to us these days, because we have come to adopt a system of averaging the conclusions of a team of individuals. Thus we are denied to hear the individual opinions of experienced observers, in favour of a "safe" majority conclusion by a committee. I still stand by my original statement: it's almost impossible to reach a wholly accurate forecast at the best of times. :)	WalOne (4202)
1257973	2012-02-08 23:57:00	The hell he does - keep his forecasts. Then see how he did. It's rubbish. There are two considerations to keep in mind. 1. Most forecasts are by area. So Met Service (or Ken Ring) may come up with a forecast for "scattered" showers. In West Auckland, one shower decides to anchor itself over pctek's home and she grizzles and gripes about the inaccuracy of the forecast because it rains all day. Eastern Suburbs and Waiheke don't have any showers, but wonderful warm sunshine so they think the forecast is truly wonderful (forecast got stuffed up again, but we don't care). That forecast is still accurate, it's just that someone decided pctek's garden (and only pctek's garden) needed an all day drenching. 2. A lot of Ring's forecasts are exactly that: forecasts i.e. before the event. Not nowcasts or trendcasts. And many of his forecasts are made months or even years ahead, with a leeway of 3 - 4 days. Not bad. "keep his forecasts. Then see how he did". Good idea. You do the same with the Met Service - or TV versions you mentioned earlier - you may be surprised :D	WalOne (4202)
1257974	2012-02-09 00:14:00	@ WalOne, mainly just having fun with ya, but within 30 min, and +/- anything is not WHOLLY accurate - it's fairly accurate at best :P My point it this, there are just too many unknown or random factors to ever be 100% accurate with a weather forecast, and the further ahead you forecast the greater the errors get. At best forecasters can predict the general trend of weather over a period of time, but never the specific conditions at a specific location at a specific time. As for Mr Ring, the sooner people stop mentioning him the better in my book. He should never have made the news.	dugimodo (138)
1257975	2012-02-09 00:20:00	I use Metservice (www.metservice.com). I also have a personal weather station in my backyard. Failing this if the cats come in soaking wet I know that it is raining outside. If they come inside dry then I know that it is not raining outside.:D	Bobh (5192)
1257976	2012-02-09 03:26:00	@ WalOne, mainly just having fun with ya, but within 30 min, and +/- anything is not WHOLLY accurate - it's fairly accurate at best :P :D	WalOne (4202)
1257977	2012-02-09 06:14:00	Cat amongst the pigeons time: Ken Ring (http://www.predictweather.co.nz/) Forget the earthquakes. This guy really does have weather forecasting nailed. Hastily exits stage left, raising forearms to ward off the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune (whatever that means), and inserting earplugs in order not to hear the assembled multitude of angry PF1ers baying for my blood and advocating the removal (painfully, and without my sanction, naturally) of various appendages. :eek: Was in the shop the other day and saw Ken Rings weather forecast book and looked at the weather for the previous week. He was by any objective standard well wide of the mark. He relies on people forcing a match between the weather he predicted and the weather that occurred after the fact. There is a lot of latitude to do this with a weather map (and Ring is careful to hedge his bets with comments like chance of rain). A fair argument could be made that the Met Service do the same thing to an extent when evaluating their own accuracy. Pretty well understood in the psychological research how he does it, read The Psychology of The Psychic to see more of the techniques that Ring and people like him use.	Twelvevolts (5457)
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