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Thread ID: 128610	2013-01-02 22:02:00	State of the World 2013: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky	zqwerty (97)	PC World Chat

Post ID	Timestamp	Content	User
1321172	2013-01-02 22:02:00	This is an annual forum which I have been following for as long as it has existed, well worth a read during your holiday browsing, it is ongoing over this period: www.well.com	zqwerty (97)
1321173	2013-01-04 07:53:00	A sample: inkwell.vue.459 : State of the World 2013: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky permalink #123 of 125: Jamais Cascio (jamaiscascio) Thu 3 Jan 13 13:12 Roland, one of the major methodological changes in professional foresight over the past few decades has been the rise and dominance of the multiple-scenario approach. Taking different combinations of potential drivers and different *manifestations* of those drivers lets you come up with a set of plausible alternative futures. The idea is that you can then test your strategies, assumptions, plans, etc. against these different possibilities to better measure how robust said strategies, etc., could be. The analogy that I've taken to using in my talks over the past few years is that foresight is like a vaccination -- it sensitizes the body (of the organization) to potential risks that might otherwise have been ignored until too late. That doesn't mean that you'll encounter all of those risks, or that they'll play out exactly as predicted, but you'll be in a much better position to identify them early.	zqwerty (97)
1321174	2013-01-04 09:30:00	Very insightful and engaging read. Probably read it again to better comprehend, and have bookmarked. Correct about Korea being early Japan, with hardware power but little soft power. Correlates to Samsung wanting to break away (www.thetimes.co.uk) from Google and be involved with the new/upcoming Tizen platform. Interesting the analogy between assembly robots stealing jobs and 3D printers that he says do similar.	kahawai chaser (3545)
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