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Thread ID: 47329	2004-07-23 06:12:00	OT: Online Stock brokers	fergie (424)	Press F1

Post ID	Timestamp	Content	User
254594	2004-07-23 11:46:00	> Another snippet tho'. Paul Samuelson was awarded a > Nobel Prize in 1970. He once said that picking good > stocks (shares here) to invest in was like throwing > darts at the financial page and picking the ones you > hit. > I don't know if you'd find that on Google. > > He also said he didn't "turn up his nose" at the > possibilities of (statistically) obtaining knowledge > of the future from the known past and present. You > won't find that one on Google. What method do you use to pick stocks? I prefer the Grahamite method (aka contrarian) - I do the opposite of what the mob and supposed experts do - it has done me very well over the past 20 years - although not without a couple of catstrophic failures :D - I can laugh at them now but at the time .... :( BTW would 10 consecutive heads guarantee an 11th? Or is tails a sure bet ;)	andrew93 (249)
254595	2004-07-23 11:56:00	>the way you thing is about right but the way to make big cash fast is.... >take $1000US use that to get a lone for $100,000US >take your $100K US >turn it to NZD @64.01c >wait for the NZD to move to 65.01c >turn your NZD back to US. >pay back the lone and keep the profit of about $1000. >if you get lucky this can happen in only a few days. >the problem is when the market move the other way. A few years back we had a character called Robert Muldoon who, with his two sidekick BB's (Bill Birch and Barry Brill) dreamed up something called "Think Big" which unfortunately (for taxpayers and current repute of electricity planning) turned into Sink Big. Goes to show that, especially where large sums of money are involved, one never can tell which way it all will go. If you are sure (and correct) that your currencies fluctuate often but stay between reflecting bands, (say 0.62USD<1NZD<0.65USD) then its easy to make a big pile in a short time. The wider the limits and the less the fluctuation, or volatility) the less well you are likely to do. If you have what some exponents call a random walk situation (which is where, whatever the currency is at any point in time, it will move randomly - either up or down but is not constrained by limits) then it's a lot riskier to make money and you can easily (and in fact probably will) lose all you are prepared to speculate. This is more likely to be the factual situation, but who knows? You pay your money and you take your chances. That's a mathematically proved result called the problem of the gambler's ruin, where if you play even on equal terms against a rich enough opponent you have 100% chance of going broke.	rugila (214)
254596	2004-07-23 12:09:00	> the asians are no longer buying the us govt bonds like they used to so there is a massive flow of capital going from us to asia to buy imported goods that is not coming back the other way Ah yes, the Asians. An Asian deposited his 10,000ringgit in the ASB one day. Came back the next day to take it out and only got 9,000ringgit in return. (Ah, the joys of currency speculation). He protested strongly and asked what the sh** was going on with such ripoff. The Pakeha teller tried his best, and said "it's fluctuations". The Asian's response was "well, fluct you blo**y Europeans".	rugila (214)
254597	2004-07-23 12:27:00	>BTW would 10 consecutive heads guarantee an 11th? Or is tails a sure bet C'est une grand question (from Candide, Pangloss et al if you're a Voltaire enthusiast.) One of James Bond's opponents once said "Once may be coincidence, twice is suspicious, three times is enemy action". How many times do you need to convince you of the latter? If you're sure that the tosses give 50/50 purely random outcomes (Fermat Pascal view of probability) then you should be sure the 11th will also be a 50/50 random outcome. But how sure are you? Try tossing a lot more times to see whether the relative outcomes stay 100% heads or whether they settle down or converge towards 50/50 or towards something else. (Laplace view of probability). Don't like that one?? Then weigh up in your mind all information you think is relevant and make your own judgment (Maynard Keynes - same person as I mentioned in earlier post - and Harold Jeffreys view of probability). In the end, if you want to play your money, you've got to take your chances. How you work those out is of course another interesting question.	rugila (214)
254598	2004-07-23 12:30:00	I'm with you Rugila, BTW fergie (good name too), sorry for hijacking your thread > An Asian deposited his 10,000ringgit in the ASB one > day. Came back the next day to take it out and only > got 9,000ringgit in return. (Ah, the joys of currency > speculation). He protested strongly and asked what > the sh** was going on with such ripoff. > The Pakeha teller tried his best, and said "it's > fluctuations". > The Asian's response was "well, fluct you blo**y > Europeans". Isn't that an old Billy T (as in James, not the 8-{) variety) joke? I recall he had another where he was asked his opinion on euthanasia - "youth in asia? We should worry about our own kiddies first!" and the don clarke joke, and the headlines, and captian cook ... and the .... and the .....	andrew93 (249)
254599	2004-07-23 13:29:00	> But have a quick read of this mirthful piece of work while I . . . . Wow - andrew93 I must rush out and buy now - Did you note that in addition to a picture of someone's signature, the CD's have actual $$ signs on them ! But wait - there's more - "FREE Explosive Trading Mystery Bonus!" I wonder if I dare hope for gensu knives? You may think I am foolish writing this instead of shipping my money off for the "key to a fortune" . Well, maybe I am, (I once bought a copy of Win XP) ?:| R2	R2x1 (4628)
254600	2004-07-24 07:06:00	thanks guys for the comments no worries about getting off the topic - its all very interesting. I think what i mite do, is: Spend about $2000 getting US Dollars, and another $2k getting Aussie $$ And then, i'll set up with ASB securties, and put in $2000 and use this to have a bit of a play, i'll probably only buy shares in 2 or 3 companies (becos of the reasons above) but i have one last Q - would you buy any shares at the moment? i just see the the index for teh NZ Xchnage is really high... o, and anyone here thought about getting some Google shares (when they're released) Cheers	fergie (424)
254601	2004-07-24 07:36:00	Hi Fergie, > no worries about getting off the topic - its all very interesting. i think it actually ended up off off topic the best time to buy is when it is hardest to do so (which is not now) - amid the doom and gloom (and sagging share prices) you can often find a company or two that just need time - look at the share prices of telecom, carter holt and tower 12 months ago - pretty hard to buy then, but they are looking good now (for sellers :D ). Right now I am getting out - sticking to my contrarian views, but if you do buy some shares then sell them all immediately when you see "it's party time" or similar in the newspaper. Regarding the forex : good luck and i hope you do well with it.	andrew93 (249)
254602	2004-07-24 09:58:00	Well bugger! A question I might have been able to help with and what happens? - Andrew and Rugila sweep the show with all the right answers . And much better than anything I could say . Dang . I've been following the sharemarket (and currencies as a result) for 25 years . In money terms, I'd have been better to put my savings in the bank . On the other hand, I think I understand business, the economy, and international currencies far better as a result . So my wealth is in the knowledge gained which I do value . I am a fan of Warren Buffet . Read about him . In fact, search for Berkshire Hathaway and download a company annual report . Simple commonsense . And great business advice for the individual investor . Gotta agree with Rugila - there is no law which says the $US cannot reach $NZ . 75 . There is no high or low . Salt was used as money centuries ago . Today we buy it by the kilo or truckload if you want . Money changes value over time .	Winston001 (3612)
254603	2004-07-24 10:25:00	> I am a fan of Warren Buffet. Read about him. In fact, > search for Berkshire Hathaway and download a company > annual report. Simple commonsense. And great business > advice for the individual investor. excellent advice and an individual worth listening to	andrew93 (249)
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