Forum Home
Press F1
Thread ID: 47329	2004-07-23 06:12:00	OT: Online Stock brokers	fergie (424)	Press F1

Post ID	Timestamp	Content	User
254584	2004-07-23 09:42:00	Yes. That's about right. Access Brokerage charge $27.50 per trade, buy or sell, for transactions below $25,000, and there is a Stock Exchange (or NZX) fee of $5.00 on top of that. So buy 1000 Telecom shares at $6.00 and sell all for $7.00 and you've made $1000 less 2*^$32.50 profit. Of course you might also make aloss if the price goes the other way and you have to or decide (sometimes there are reasons to) sell at the lower price. It's a bit like the casino, with the brokerage fee equivalent to the house take or commission. Only you can usually, if you're sensible, organise the odds alot better in your favour than the casino gives. That famous putative physical and mathematical genius Isaac Newton, (gravity, optics, co-inventor of the inverse square law,etc.) lost (UK pounds) 20,000 investing (i.e. gambling) on the South Seas Bubble (big on the English Stock market back then) in 1711. He ruefully remarked afterwards "I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people". On the other hand David Ricardo, an English MP and economist (founder of the comparative advantage theory of international trade etc.) understood the "madness of people" rather better than the scientific genius Newton - well enough in fact to make 5million for himself on the English Stock market about 1820. Irving Fisher was an American economist, founded a fair bit of monetary policy stuff like Reserve Bank etc. tries to use in NZ these days, who over 1915-30 made quite a few million on the Us stock market and also made himself bankrupt the same way. John Maynard Keynes was an English financier and economist and probability theorist who made (early 20th century) piles for himself and his Cambridge College (Kings) by lying in bed late in the mornings and dreaming up models/strategies of stock market trading. No brokers' advice there! (His stated only regret in later life was that he hadn't drunk more champagne). Andrew93 gives excellent advice to avoid the chartists (or technical analysts, or TA as they sometimes call themselves). On the other hand, I wouldn't agree with his seeming view that the past provides no guide to the future, even in the specific context of stock trading. If done right it the past can provide a lot of information, but can you do it right..?	rugila (214)
254585	2004-07-23 10:16:00	Hi Rugila Oops - I went and invited a debate and got one with someone who knows a lot more about XL than me - right now I'm not fancying my chances with this debate (or was your last sentence simply bait?) given your superior intelligence (I naively thought I knew a bit about XL until I read your posts) . Plus the fact that the past behaviour of some people on this forum (no names mentioned, not you) is a perfect indicator for their future performance is not helping my case . I give up helping trying to help some poeple - but c'est la vie . But have a quick read of this mirthful piece of work ( . fibonaccisecrets . com/?PHPSESSID=cd54f3499488b07e50bd9c3f9ad1e48d" target="_blank">www . fibonaccisecrets . com) while I put my son to sleep (and construct my case) - I found it while seeking an article to help my argument . :)	andrew93 (249)
254586	2004-07-23 10:17:00	BTW Rugila I meant to add - great snippets and thanks for sharing them	andrew93 (249)
254587	2004-07-23 10:31:00	Hi fergie It is well worth knowing that if you want to invest in a fund without going through a salesman (and paying extortionate entry fees) then the best way is to invest by going through http://www.nzij.co.nz/ If you pay an entry fee then it really cuts into what you are going to receive at the end. There are few funds that you cannot invest in using the New Zealand Investment Journal (very reputable !) for no entry fee. Misty :)	Misty (368)
254588	2004-07-23 10:32:00	>This is called gambling, not investing. Why do you say that? i thought currency (especillay buying from NZ economy) would be pretty safe. i mean, i have a few thousand saved away - getting 5% interest... but say NZ $ gets to 70c - i buy $5k US costing me $7100 NZ (excl fees). I wait till until NZ $ gets to about .55 - .60c and sell it ($5000 / .6 = $8333) which is a $1100 gain. and the dollar usualy flucttuates every yr or so, and its not like its gonna get to 75c or sumthing and keep going (RB will just up Interest rates - a high dollar like that would kill us - correct me if i'm rong - i'm currently only 1/2 way thro yr 12 economics - so i don't have tht much knowlegde on all this) and this return is a lot more than the 5% on my $$ at the moment...	fergie (424)
254589	2004-07-23 11:21:00	Hi andrew93 > Oops - I went and invited a debate Those are usually good, healthy and informative to both sides - great stuff > and got one with someone who knows a lot more about XL than me You're OK. My own Excel knowledge is pretty limited (like Socrates, the only fact I know is the fact of my own ignorance). > - right now I'm not fancying my chances with this debate (or was your last sentence simply bait?) No. My last sentence was a serious comment and question. To myself as much as to you or anyone else. > given your superior intelligence But please lay off this sort of stuff. We're all pretty equal, we just pick up different background in getting to wherever we are now. > Plus the fact that the past behaviour of some people on this forum (no names mentioned, not you) is a perfect indicator for their future performance is not helping my case. I give up helping trying to help some poeple - but c'est la vie. I've had my problems too. (Not with you). There's some really good people on this forum, but one or two not so good including at least one pretty prominent one who sadly tried to further their own reputation as putative expert (I thought he knew fxxx all) by trying to denigrate others of whose background they had no knowledge. > But have a quick read of this mirthful piece of work while I put my son to sleep (and construct my case) - I found it while seeking an article to help my argument. Ah. Leonardo Fibonacci. All I knew about him was his number sequence 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21,... (add the previous two to get the next). Italians about that time were an intersting bunch, they didn't like negative numbers and called them "impossible" numbers, along the way inventing double entry bookkeeping so they didn't have to use negative numbers in financial recording. Maybe being a mathematician in early times wasn't that good an idea. Ludolph van Ceulen in the spent the last 30 years of his life to about 1610 trying to calculate the number pi to about 500 decimal places. Modern revisons showed he was wrong in about the 78th and 304th decimal places (no doubt Google will specify them more accurately). As you say, c'est la vie. Then there was Hypatia, the first significant woman mathematician, also a good philosopher, who was cut to pieces with shells by a plebian mob in 415AD who didn't think women should be doing that sort of thing. And of course poor old Hippasos who was allegedly assassinated by drowning by the Pythagorean brotherhood about 650BC for revealing to an outsider one of their most innermost and tightly held secrets - that you can't measure the diagonal of a square in the same units of measurement as you measure the sides. Now, that's real serious stuff, watch out that you don't reveal such arcanities to the hoi polloi.	rugila (214)
254590	2004-07-23 11:26:00	the natonal bank let you do share trading on the net with internet bnaking.... www.nbnz.co.nz	robsonde (120)
254591	2004-07-23 11:34:00	> i thought currency (especillay buying from NZ > economy) would be pretty safe . > i mean, i have a few thousand saved away - getting 5% > interest . . . > but say NZ $ gets to 70c - i buy $5k US costing me > $7100 NZ (excl fees) . > I wait till until NZ $ gets to about . 55 - . 60c and > sell it ($5000 / . 6 = $8333) which is a $1100 gain . > and the dollar usualy flucttuates every yr or so, and > its not like its gonna get to 75c or sumthing and > keep going (RB will just up Interest rates - a high > dollar like that would kill us - correct me if i'm > rong - i'm currently only 1/2 way thro yr 12 > economics - so i don't have tht much knowlegde on all > this) > and this return is a lot more than the 5% on my $$ at > the moment . . . i do some investing with currency markets . . . . . the way you thing is about right but the way to make big cash fast is . . . . take $1000US use that to get a lone for $100,000US take your $100K US turn it to NZD @64 . 01c wait for the NZD to move to 65 . 01c turn your NZD back to US . pay back the lone and keep the profit of about $1000 . if you get lucky this can happen in only a few days . the problem is when the market move the other way . if you want to have a play of the currency markets for fun then go to www . fxcm . com and get a free demo account and see what you can do .	robsonde (120)
254592	2004-07-23 11:35:00	>BTW Rugila I meant to add - great snippets and thanks for sharing them Thanks. All of that sort of stuff was much more impressive (to some) before the days of Google, but now anyone can do it. I used to do a bit of reading. Another snippet tho'. Paul Samuelson was awarded a Nobel Prize in 1970. He once said that picking good stocks (shares here) to invest in was like throwing darts at the financial page and picking the ones you hit. I don't know if you'd find that on Google. He also said he didn't "turn up his nose" at the possibilities of (statistically) obtaining knowledge of the future from the known past and present. You won't find that one on Google.	rugila (214)
254593	2004-07-23 11:40:00	> > This is called gambling, not investing. > > Why do you say that? a fair question > i thought currency (especillay buying from NZ > economy) would be pretty safe. it's as volatile as any other investment, probably more so > i mean, i have a few thousand saved away - getting 5% > interest... > but say NZ $ gets to 70c - i buy $5k US costing me > $7100 NZ (excl fees). the fees may be % based rather than a flat fee - so expect the transaction costs to be significant Also "say NZ $ get to 70c" - it may well do, it has been there before, but then it has been below 45c too. I remember (some years back) getting 19 pence to the kiwi and the company I was with had to buy machine parts out of the UK - it was killing us - look at the kiwi/gbp cross-rate now - what is it? about 35-36 pence to the kiwi? > I wait till until NZ $ gets to about .55 - .60c and what if it goes to parity? How long will you wait before you realise a loss? If you look at the international flow of money, the asians are no longer buying the us govt bonds like they used to so there is a massive flow of capital going from us to asia to buy imported goods that is not coming back the other way (which it always used to as agreed under the table, now the chinese are electing to put thier money elsewhere) - what will be the long term impact on the usd? Add to that the lack of international credibility and they are running ginormous trade deficits - how long will it be before there is a genuine demand for their currency? We will have to wait for them to trade their way out of it which aint gonna happen while things like Iraq & Bush, oops terror, threats are hanging around their neck. > sell it ($5000 / .6 = $8333) which is a $1100 gain. > and the dollar usualy flucttuates every yr or so, and no disrepect intended but if it is as easy you describe why isn't everyone doing it? Why aren't the big hitters doing it? > its not like its gonna get to 75c or sumthing and as i said previously, are you willing to bet on that? Because that's what you will be doing. If I tossed a coin 10 times and got 10 consecutive heads, how much would you gamble that the next one will also be a head? (Here you go Rugila, my reasoning for past performance...) Nothing cos chances are its gonna be a tail right? How much would you bet on that? Me personally would bet absolutely nothing cos the probability is still 50%. > keep going (RB will just up Interest rates - a high > dollar like that would kill us - correct me if i'm > rong - i'm currently only 1/2 way thro yr 12 > economics - so i don't have tht much knowlegde on all > this) you may be right (the high dollar would kill us) but nz is a pimple on the butt of international monetary affairs and we have absolutely zip control over where the exchange rate takes our peso, er dollar :D - when you consider how little control NZ has over its destiny in this matter, what control do we mere individuals have investing in forex? Nada therefore this is gambling - one buys or sells a currency hoping it will move in ones favour. Lets say the RB does up the interest rate and we can now earn say 8% on deposits (I remember the days when you could get 12% and higher), what will the Japanese do if they can only get 1% and the yanks who are getting 2%? They are going to buy nzd - demand and supply, won't the dollar go up in the absence of other factors? Maybe i have presented it simplistically (or even incorrectly) but the point i am trying to make is that there are a lot of factors out of our control. > and this return is a lot more than the 5% on my $$ at > the moment... agree but it comes back to the risk and return equation - the greater return is achieved through taking a higher risk. The higher risk says that you may achieve a super-normal return (you might even make a 50% return with enough forex movement) but there is also a chance that you will achieve a sub-normal return, or a capital loss or even in some cases a total loss. Look at the SA rand - should we buy it because it is cheap? Maybe, maybe not - it's a gamble.	andrew93 (249)
1 2 3 4